I recently visited China.
China’s activity level is amazing, glowing and parisionic to its size!
There is no doubt that China will take up the economic global leadership position in a near future, surpassing both Japan, as it has already, and the US. In 1990, China’s contribution to the global GDP was 3%. Within five years that number will be greater than that of the US, and be around 22%.
Believe it or not, but after Deng Xiaoping arrested the Gang of Four, including Madame Mao, 35 years ago or so, resulted in China opening their country step by step, despite the fact that the steps were tiny. During the 1980’s Deng Xiaoping implemented a range of economic reforms in China previously unheard of, however he still maintained the power within the country’s Communist Party.
I am convinced that by being a member of the global economy, staying involved in the political networks and discussions, and due to the electronic communication tools, which resulted in a paradigm shift in the way we connect ourselves to the rest of the world, China will continue its path to democracy. Regardless whether the political leadership in China believe it, or whether the rest of the world believes it, it is my opinion that the Chinese people believe it! Just imagine when more than 1.2 billion people make up their mind! Change will come around. Mark my words!
It will not happen tomorrow, not within five years, but eventually it will, and most certainly before my generation leaves this world! Here are some observations I had compared to my visit to China five years ago. These are not based on any political facts or economic theories:
- I did not see any soldiers. Usually they march up and down the streets, in proximity to the airports and official buildings, close to the hotel where they are visible for the tourists. I did not see a single one. And I really tried to look for them! Then and there - in a strange and very small way - it created a feeling that China might be on the right path to normalization towards a society that is based on solidarity and freedom, rather than on military oppression.
- The tourist’s walk to the Silk Road mall to shop for knock-off goods. The Chinese people, however, shop elsewhere and buy authentically branded products and pay 20% more than what we pay for the same items in Europe. A strange circumstance, and surely not true among the majority of the Chinese people, but perhaps at least a sign that the living conditions in China are improving.
- All, and I mean all Chinese people in the large urban cities, are using modern communication tools that are available today to everyone around the world. They speak continuously on their phones, at the store, in the post office, when eating at the restaurants, on the streets and in their cars. Most of them have an Iphone, many of them an Ipad, a large amount of them have a portable computer. With this at hand, it is really possible that, in the long run, this opens up the road to greater freedom of speech for the Chinese people. Certainly, technology will give this a gigantic push forward despite the fact that the Chinese authorities are trying to hinder it.
- Construction work is visible everywhere. New roads are built and new buildings are constructed. Offices are established. And the need for building progress and construction machines are monumental. In Japan, the ratio of construction worker to excavator is 8/1. In the US, this ratio is 30/1 and in China it is 93/1. All of these investments are and will continue to deliver competitive advantage vs rest of the world. Despite the fact that most of China remains underdeveloped at this time, growth is happening with such speed, that soon they will become unbeatable. This will contribute to higher standard of living in China, which is confirmed in China’s next five-year program. In this program they have an ambition to go west (within China) with their investments to encompass all of China, not just the east coast. The plan also outlines the focus on growing domestic consumption moving away from depending solely on exports.
- Most of the meetings I attend were crowded with women! Men here were in minority. In the Chinese society today, where the one-child policy exits, people have changed the way they think about the sex of their child. In the past, a boy that could take care of their parents when the parents grew old. Today, they prefer a daughter. The reasoning is that it is too expensive to finance a boy for schools and living. It is better to have a daughter that can get married to a rich man in a rich home!
- Chinese people do not know or care to stand in line! To attack in masses is their guiding principle. When checking in at the airport, there are at least three other people trying to do the same, at the same time! Here I actually expected a change, especially since the ”line training” the Chinese government imposed on its people every 11th day of the month, a year before the Olympic games in Beijing. They wanted to show a decent behaviour for all the spectators arriving for the games. It seems like they didn’t learn anything.
Although, again, mark my words that China will one day be a democratic society.
Naive thinking? Possibly! Positive mindset? Definitely! Realistic? You bet!
I believe so much in the willpower of each individual, their strengths, desire for freedom, to do as they want, to believe in what they would like to believe, to speak up if they so wish and live the life they have chosen.
And that willpower from any individual can’t not be stopped forever!
Think progressively!
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